SIRC 2026: ‘Risk is heightened everywhere’: Tokio Marine Kiln’s Pavlos Spyropoulos

November 4 2026 by

The coming 1.1 renewals in Asia Pacific are expected to be challenging for reinsurers as the market softening continues amid intense competition for business, according to Pavlos Spyropoulos, managing director of APAC at Tokio Marine Kiln in Singapore. 

Spyropoulos said that the (re)insurance market in the region has entered “a challenging phase in the cycle.” 

“When you speak to both our underwriters, but also when we’re speaking to brokers, we’re seeing all the pressure come in in terms of competition and the impact that’s having on the rating environment,” he said. 

Another year of benign natural catastrophe losses and strong reinsurer earnings has created a complex market where capacity is abundant, rates are softening but risk is proliferating. 

“Risk is heightened everywhere you look including in the region as well, and at the same time there is an oversupply of capital and capacity which is having an impact on rates,” Spyropoulos added.  

The industry currently faces acute risks from the conflict in the Middle East, which has had a huge impact across the specialty market this year, particularly in the marine market, and from the ongoing AI and data centre boom that is in full swing in Asia Pacific and around the world.  

“We are now seeing interest rates going back up in some key economies,” Spyropoulos added. “You’re seeing quite significant loss activity in certain lines of business and heightened risk. We know obviously the Middle East conflict is driving a lot of that in areas like political violence and terrorism. 

“There’s some emerging risk as well. On the marine cargo side, the values of shipments of high-tech components have gone up significantly. We keep having the boom in AI, and we’re seeing quite significant loss activity with theft of this cargo. And yet we’re in a period where the cargo market is still seeing continued rate reductions in recent months.” Pavlos Spyropoulos, Tokio Marine Kiln

According to Spyropoulos, rate adequacy is becoming a major concern for the market given this complex risk landscape, although there are specialty lines such as political violence and terrorism (PVT) that are starting to see a reversal of the softening trend.  

“I think there’s probably a reckoning coming in certain lines of business,” Spyropoulos said. “I think in the primary and facultative markets, it’s certainly a hot theme. It’ll be interesting to see how the reinsurers are going to be responding to it as well.” 

For the PVT market, 2026 has been a “whirlwind” year with the crisis in the Middle East and heightened prospects of civil unrest across APAC due to higher energy prices driving significant “recalibrating” of appetite among buyers, according to Spyropoulos. 

“I think that’s going to continue throughout the year, particularly as people go through their treaty renewals,” Spyropoulos said. “I think capacity might become more constrained. That’s certainly what I would expect. 

“I’d expect that to be quite a dynamic marketplace over the next six to 12 months.” 

TMK currently sees significant opportunities in the specialty market in APAC heading into 2027, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the specialty insurer recently expanded its footprint in the marine market through its backing for marine MGA Rokstone Underwriting’s launch in Singapore. 

“I think despite the challenging market conditions, we’re still finding ways to grow and, to touch wood, it should be another year of profitable growth for our business,” Spyropoulos said.  

“What we’re focusing on is I’d say diversification in multiple ways, one being geographic. We want to make sure that we’ve got broad distribution across the region and making sure we’re tapping into markets where perhaps we’ve not had as significant growth as we have in the past. 

“I think particularly Southeast Asia is an area we’re looking at because we’re very strong in the Pacific region and North Asia and we see opportunities to do more in Southeast Asia.”  

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