Chaucer and JBA unveil crop model for India

November 14 2018 by InsuranceAsia News Staff

Modeling firm JBA Risk Management has teamed up with Chaucer to develop a probabilistic crop model for the Indian agriculture insurance market.

The model uses computer simulations to reproduce the daily growth of major insured crops throughout the Indian Kharif (summer) and Rabi (winter) growing seasons.

Tom Graham, head of regional treaty development at Chaucer in Singapore, commented: “The Indian agricultural insurance market has grown rapidly since 2015 due to the state sponsorship of a revised insurance scheme. The Indian government has publicly stated that it is looking to ensure cover for 50% of India’s 130 million farmers by 2020 through the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) scheme.

“To facilitate and support this vital and ambitious goal, it is hugely important to have robust models in place to help assess the nature of the risk and exposure to the market.”

India’s farmers are currently preparing for the winter crop growing season amid increasing evidence that a period of El Nino weather patterns will likely prevail from late 2018 into 2019.

During El Nino phases some crop yields could result in a 28% fall from their annual average.

Singapore-based Dr Iain Willis, managing director at JBA Risk Management , commented: “There’s currently a 70% chance that the global climate will experience an El Nino warming phase from October this year into early 2019.”

“We know that El Nino can have substantial effects on the rainfall patterns of the Indian summer monsoon. Crop simulations ran using historic climate data suggest that some major Indian rain-fed crops, including soybean and groundnut, are particularly vulnerable to these changes during El Nino years and can be adversely affected.”

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