Full capacity: Atlantic hurricane casts tempestuous forecast

May 24 2025 by

Welcome to Full Capacity, a weekly briefing on all the most important developments of the past week with a personal take on the news from our editor-in-chief, Mithun Varkey, delivered to your inbox every Saturday.

Leadership shake-up. AIG’s Australia has promoted Kathleen Warden as general manager for Australia with CEO Grant Cairns departing.

Cairns is understood to be joining hands with former Steadfast COO Nigel Fitzgerald to launch an underwriting business.

Nat cat brief. In what has been labelled a “one-in-500-year” flood event, Manning river in Australia’s New South Wales broke an almost 100-year record.

Significant claims are anticipated as the region battles flooding that has “smashed through” communities in the region.

IAN Insight. In a blunt warning, incoming Lloyd’s CEO Patrick Tiernan has told syndicates that blunt instruments rather than surgical tools would soon be needed if they fail to trim their expectations as rates soften.

“If we want to ensure a soft landing, then we need to plan from the top. At present, our data gives us cause for concern but not alarm,” he said.

Lloyd’s CUO Rachel Turk said: “The market can best be described as fragile. Talk that rates are down 10-15% is apocryphal.”

“Sentiment has shifted. It is now more negative. There is a view that there is a cause for concern,” she added.

Between The Lines. Make sure you catch the latest episode of our fortnightly podcast. The latest edition features an interview with Helen Ye, CEO and founder of Hong Kong-based MGA Qubit Underwriting, where she discusses the evolving MGA market and trends in the crypto insurance world.

Active hurricane season bears on North Atlantic

As the reinsurance markets race to close the all-important 1.6 Florida renewals, Guy Carpenter is ringing the alarm bells for an active 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season.

The broker has warned property (re)insurers to remain prepared for potentially impactful landfalls, regardless of seasonal expectations.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption, according to NOAA.

Guy Carpenter said total named storms are forecast to be well above average for the 1950-2023 period, and above average compared to the elevated hurricane activity seen between 1995-2023.

What’s fuelling this tempestuous forecast? Above-average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico combined with the potential transition to La Niña conditions.

Though sea-surface temperatures are substantially lower than 2024, the North Atlantic is still the third warmest on record.

NOAA is estimating a 30% chance of La Niña making an appearance, which could crank up the activity as the season unfolds. And don’t expect the dampening effects of El Niño this time around.

NOAA’s national weather service director, Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

People Moves

Axa XL has handed Jamie Chambers an expanded role as CEO for greater China. He will take over from HaoMing Zhou, who is retiring.

The specialty (re)insurer has also appointed Tavpraneet Singh as CUO for international financial lines for APAC and Europe.

AIG has a new CEO in Thailand, with Chubb’s Thanathon Kiratipasuk joining the insurer.

Howden continues its M&A insurance team expansion in India with the appointment of Marsh’s Shreya Iyer as co-head of transactional risk.

Do check out our weekly people move round-up to stay up to speed on the most important appointments in the region.

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